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Pre-Employment Report Watch-10/8

This morning's eagerly anticipated employment report is unlikely to clear the air of the debilitating uncertainty that has descended in the wake of the Fed's adoption of a bias towards tightening.

The current consensus calls for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.2%, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% and non-farm payrolls increasing 220,000.

The key figures to watch today will be average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate.  A dip in the jobless rate, or a higher than expected rise in average hourly earnings, will be enough to spook an already frightened bond market and send stocks tumbling.  Given the extreme degree of negative sentiment in the bond market, we would expect bonds to stage a relief rally if the headline average hourly earnings figure meets expectations of a rise of 0.3%.

While recent economic data has pointed to an accelerating pace of consumer demand driven economic growth and increasing labor market tightness, we do not believe today's Hurricane Floyd skewed employment report will provide an accurate picture of the strength of the current labor market.

We are looking for non-farm payrolls to come in below consensus due to the impact of Hurricane Floyd.  While a much lower than expected non farm payroll figure would likely provide the necessary fuel for a market rally (provided there are no surprises in average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate), we would be inclined to regard any such reading as a storm skewed aberration that is unlikely to decrease the odds of further Fed tightening.

This month's nonfarm payroll figures are unlikely to be a factor in the Fed's decision making unless they come in significantly above expectation, at 300,000 or more.  Perhaps more important than this month's numbers will be the revision made to August's below trend non-farm payrolls.

Unless average hourly earnings come in above expectations or non-farm payrolls manage to significantly exceed expectations in the face of the downward skew exerted by last month's hurricane, today's report is unlikely to provide any concrete answers to either investors or the Fed.

 

 
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Last modified: March 17, 2001

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