Home
Up
comm022100

Co-brand Partnerships

award-5.gif (6517 bytes)

topsite.gif (1668 bytes)

webfifty.gif (6027 bytes)


 
drop_center.gif (2753 bytes)


wpe1.jpg (2095 bytes)


FREE EMAIL
Email Login
Password
New Users Sign Up!
 
MAILING LIST
Sign up for our weekly e-mail newsletter!
Tell Me More!

Enter your e-mail address
subscribe
unsubscribe
NEWS SEARCH
WEB DIRECTORY
WEB SEARCH
 CITY GUIDES
search by:
 WEATHER

Current Weather
Enter Your City, State, or Zipcode:

   

MASTERING
THE TRADE

ORIGINAL, INTERACTIVE SEMINAR ON TRADING USING
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
 

 
EARNINGS ESTIMATES

Enter Symbol

U.S. QUOTES

Enter Symbol:

U.S. CHARTS

Enter Symbol:

TECHNICAL OPINION

Enter Symbol:

CANADIAN CHARTS

Enter Symbol


 SEC FILINGS

Search For:
 

Company Name
Ticker Symbol

 BROKER RESEARCH
Exclusive Broker

Research
Enter Ticker

 

MORNING COMMENTS WEEK OF 2/14/00-2/18/00

 

2/18/00

 

2/17/00

 

2/16/00

 

2/15/00

Everyone loves a bargain, and everyone loves the only game in town—the game where the risk/reward ratio is perceived by the faithful to be 100 parts reward and 0 parts risk, the game where the players view the path ahead as paved with gold and believe participation is the only requirement for future success, the game where those late to the party are the biggest fans, the game where charlatans in search of a fast investment banking buck cloak themselves in an air of respectability and charm the unsuspecting with glowing research reports based more on fantasy than fact, the game which has replaced baseball as the national pastime.

In days of yore, in a long lost time when participants still contemplated the relationship of market valuation levels to historical norms and in a forgotten era when brokerage house "buy" ratings were based on an analysis of the underlying fundamentals rather than on an analysis of the investment banking dollars to be gained, market participants knew that there were no guarantees, no easy ticket to the promised land of the good life. They played the game with a knowledge that can only be gained by experience, knowing that parabolic climbs were most often followed by blood curdling declines, knowing that nothing lasts forever, understanding that there are times when gravity will win out and will prevent the ball from bouncing back to the lofty levels it once so easily attained.

Today, in the golden era of bits and bytes, of digital dreams , of overnight paper billionaires, the lessons of the past are often overlooked, the laws of gravity held in contempt, the participants lulled into complacency by their ride on a rising tide, the boastful confusing trading skill with the fortuitous luck of entering the game on a sunny day. Today, when the going gets tough and gravity exerts its pull on the bouncing ball, the tough and not so tough get going…to their nearest phone or computer terminal to bark out buy orders to their broker, confident in their belief that Annie was right, "The sun will (always) come out tomorrow".

The unwavering faith of current day participants that "what goes up, will always go up", when combined with the age-old tendency of the inexperienced to disregard the commonplace warning "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" has magnified the divergence between the performance of the narrow strata of brokerage "analyst" pushed crowd pleasers and the underperforming broader market. In recent weeks, when the going has gotten tough and the buy on the dip faithful have dutifully and mechanically arrived to save the day, their buying has been concentrated not in the market’s true bargains but rather in the market’s most overvalued sectors, namely technology, Internet, and biotech-- pushing these sectors further into the uncharted waters of record valuation levels.

Neither the gravitation towards the most highly "touted" stocks nor the leaving of historical valuation methods by the wayside are surprising, for they are events which routinely occur when widespread knowledge of the longevity and strength of a trend inspire mass public participation, creating a mass frenzy of buying which culminates in a blow-off top similar to that seen in technology stocks during December.

After an initial parabolic upward thrust, blow-off tops will often culminate in a period of widely volatile distribution as money passes from weak hands to strong hands, from the experienced to the inexperienced late-arrivers who have been lured to the "game" by the scent of easy money.

The market’s current phase of distribution is likely to continue until Tax Day, April 15th, as strong inflows continue to provide a cushion that counters the waves of selling by experienced hands.

The numerous cracks that have begun to appear in the market: from the breakdown of 2/3 of the Dow Industrials (the past two days cyclical dead cat bounce notwithstanding) to the freefall of the Transports, from the breakdown of Internet leaders AOL and Yahoo to the signs of a top in many tech leaders, suggests that the road after April 15th will take a turn for the worse—that perhaps the chorus line singing "The sun will (always) come out tomorrow" would be well advised to bring an umbrella.

 

2/14/00

 NO COMMENTARY PUBLISHED

DISCLAIMER

 

 
Search for it at the TulipSearch Open Directory
Investment Bookstore Investment Newsstand Market Mavens Report

TULIPS AND BEARS NETWORK SITES

 

FINANCE
Tulips and Bears
Contrarian Investing.com
Internet Stock Talk
Traders Message Boards
Traders Press Bookstore

NEWS AND INFORMATION
TulipsWeather
Freewarestop.com
TulipsMail
TulipsEspa�ol
TulipSearch
TulipNews
TulipCards
AllMusicSearch.com
City Guides
Travel Center
Bargain Bloodhound

WEBMASTER TOOLS

BecomeAnAffiliate.com
TulipDomains
GoSurfTo
TulipStats
TulipHost...coming soon
TulipTools...coming soon
...coming soon




Questions or Comments? Contact Us

Copyright � 1998-2002 Tulips and Bears LLC.
All Rights Reserved.  Republication of this material,
including posting to message boards or news groups,
without the prior written consent of Tulips and Bears LLC
is strictly prohibited.  'Tulips and Bears' is a registered trademark of Tulips and Bears LLC


Last modified: April 02, 2001

Published By Tulips and Bears LLC